Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.
That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.
Which home run props stand out for today’s MLB action?
Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.
Today’s Best Home Run Props
Mike Yastrzemski to Hit a Home Run (+470)
In each of his last two seasons, Aaron Nola has registered a 1.35 HR/9 or worse, and the experienced righty has gotten off to a concerning start in 2025. Across his first 3 starts and 16.1 innings pitched this season, Nola is residing in the 27th percentile in average exit velocity (91.0 MPH), 20th percentile in barrel rate (12.2%), and 49th percentile in hard-hit rate (40.8%), which has led to him giving up four homers already.
While Mike Yastrzemski has never been known for his ability to hit dingers consistently, the veteran outfielder has delivered 3 homers and a .769 SLG over his last 8 games and 30 plate appearances for the San Francisco Giants. Besides the fact that Yastrzemski has been hitting out of the leadoff spot versus right-handed pitchers, he’s posting formidable power metrics, ranking in the 71st percentile in xSLG (.482), 72nd percentile in average exit velocity (91.4 MPH), 75th percentile in barrel rate (12.5%), and 65th percentile in hard-hit rate (46.9%).
Along with Nola permitting plenty of hard contact, the bullpen of the Philadelphia Phillies is producing the seventh-worst HR/9 (1.17), second-worst barrel rate (12.3%), and highest flyball rate (44.7%) in baseball. Over the past three years, Citizens Bank Park has the third-highest home run park factor for left-handed batters, which is another plus for Yastrzemski in this matchup.
Rafael Devers to Hit a Home Run (+340)
It was certainly a head-scratching start to the new campaign for Rafael Devers, as the slugging third baseman was hitless with 15 strikeouts in his first 23 plate appearances. However, over his last 62 plate appearances, Devers has logged a .302 AVG with 1 home run and 6 doubles.
When looking at Devers’ power metrics, there still seems to be plenty of dynamite in his bat, sitting in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity (94.6 MPH), 85th percentile in barrel rate (15.6%), 96th percentile in hard-hit rate (60.0%), and 71st percentile in launch angle sweet spot (37.8%). These numbers give me confidence in backing Devers to hit one deep on Wednesday, especially ahead of a matchup versus Zack Littell and the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Not only is Littell sporting the second-worst HR/9 (2.65) among pitchers with 15-plus innings pitched, but he is in the 40th percentile in average exit velocity (90.1 MPH), 24th percentile in barrel rate (11.3%), and 29th percentile in hard-hit rate (45.3%). In addition to it being warmer weather at Steinbrenner Field with winds blowing to right, Tampa Bay’s bullpen is recording the worst HR/9 (2.10), worst exit velocity (92.2 MPH), worst barrel rate (13.7%), and worst hard-hit rate (50.9%) in the majors.
Mookie Betts to Hit a Home Run (+430)
On the surface, Mookie Betts isn’t someone we should have much confidence in hitting one over the fence right now, but I believe he’s trending in the right direction after an illness caused him to lose weight early in the season. Despite his power metrics being underwhelming so far, Betts is still in the 99th percentile in squaring the ball up (41.8%) and 26th in flyball rate (48.2%), so it’s only a matter of time before baseballs begin leaving the park when he’s at the plate.
German Marquez is set to start for the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday, and the experienced hurler has accumulated a 1.50 HR/9 over the past three seasons, making me skeptical that he’ll continue to limit homers and hard contact this season. Additionally, Marquez’s 14.9% strikeout rate and 21.2% whiff rate gives hitters plenty of opportunities to put wood on leather.
Throughout his career, Marquez has also flashed reverse splits, permitting 1.31 HR/9 and 30.3% flyball rate to right-handed batters (compared to a 1.16 HR/9 and 28.7% flyball rate to left-handed batters). The Rockies are another team that’s gotten woeful outings from their bullpen, with their relievers combining for the 2nd-worst HR/9 (1.87), 13th-worst barrel rate (8.7%), and 12th-worst hard-hit rate (41.0%).
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
